Anticipatory Systems Mapping

is a participatory, interactive, and visual approach to systems mapping through which stakeholders, related by a common issue, co-design sustainability pathways.

learn more

What is Anticipatory Systems Mapping?

In the Anticipatory Systems Mapping (or ASM), stakeholders first create a mutual understanding of the current state of the system in question, which also forms the basis of a business-as-usual scenario. They then devise visions of their desired futures and collectively explore possible strategies, also known as pathways, to reach them. Strategies can be tested against a range of external scenarios and drivers. This process allows these participants to deepen their understanding of the system, and identify barriers and levers on the path to their desired futures.

Three domains of Anticipatory Systems Mapping

ARENA OF CONTROL
Where problem owners can effectively make decisions and develop pathways to their desired futures. Problem owners can range from small organizations (e.g. a municipality) to large ones (e.g. EU), to countries and regions (e.g. a river basin). Problem owners operate within a context that transcends their arena of influence, and therefore encounter, and must take into consideration, other important stakeholders.

ARENA OF INFLUENCE
The pathways they develop can both impact and be impacted by these stakeholders and their worldviews, decisions, and actions.

UNCERTAINTY SPACE
Taken together, these two arenas function within an even larger Uncertainty Space, which encompasses a range of external scenarios. To ensure that their pathways are robust against such scenarios, participants are invited to collectively identify the most important drivers and constraints, externally, which translate to various opportunities and threats internally.

Benefits

Anticipatory Systems Mapping allows experts and practitioners – coming from different backgrounds and holding different worldviews – to tap into their creativity and inventiveness.

We help stakeholders find common ground and reach an agreement on the different aspects of their desired futures.

The engaging, interactive form of ASM workshops helps capture the full range of experiences, expertise, and know-how that each participant brings to the table.

Participants in this process have often expressed that using the ASM approach improved their grasp of the big picture, provided them with a common vocabulary and tools for better collaboration, and helped them embrace different perspectives in navigating future challenges.

We help stakeholders find common ground and reach an agreement on the different aspects of their desired futures.

One of the key benefits of Anticipatory Systems Mapping is its game-like design, which enables diverse participants to engage deeply in the process with ease.

Moreover, it is flexible.
It can either inform and form the basis of a strategic planning and management process or can be used for learning and capacity building. The results of the process can also be used to inform further efforts into understanding and analysing the system, such as modelling.

One of the key benefits of Anticipatory Systems Mapping is its game-like design, which enables diverse participants to engage deeply in the process with ease.

Process steps

The general process of the Anticipatory Systems Mapping approach is shown more closely below. Although it is presented in sequential order, the process is not entirely linear – the steps are fluid and will overlap with each other during the process.

1. Problem

Participants face a complex, real-world challenge that calls for innovative responses and requires the integration of a wide range of data, insights, and tacit knowledge.

2. DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES

Anticipatory Systems Mapping provides an accessible, visual representation of the problem and connects stakeholders with diverse backgrounds, values, tasks, and goals. Together, they can explore the issue from different perspectives.

3. COMMUNICATION

The unique setting allows participants to present their positions regarding the problem, propose their desired responses, and negotiate and influence others. This leads to a free exchange of ideas and bridges communication gaps.

4. COMPLEXITY

Throughout their discussions, participants discover the most important variables, identify interconnections, design responses, and test how they may impact other actors and the whole system. In this process, both the problem and the consequences of possible solutions become visible in their entirety.

5. CREATIVITY

Participants discover their creative potential and go off the beaten track. Abstract ideas become tangible, opening new, original, and inspiring pathways into the unknown.

6. CONSENSUS

In this safe environment, participants are more empathetic, trusting, and willing to cooperate. Even when debates become heated, all voices are heard, trade-offs are negotiated, and a joint strategy is developed.

7. COMMITMENT TO ACTION

After finding common ground despite differences, participants commit to implementing their jointly developed strategy and use their experience and knowledge to face real-life challenges.

COLLABORATIVE SYSTEMS MAPPING
OF SUSTAINABLE PATHWAYS (CoSMoS)

Under the umbrella of the ASM approach, we continue to develop different methods to address various kinds of systems. Collaborative Systems Mapping of Sustainable Pathways, or CoSMoS, is an example of an ASM method which is in the most developed phase and thus widely used (see examples below).

CoSMoS looks at sustainability pathways for social-ecological systems. In its base form, CoSMoS comes with general categorisations of the water-energy-land nexus system elements – i.e. related to water, food, energy, economy, society and the environment. It can thus be used in broad contexts. However, these categorisations and subsequent system elements can be co-designed and customised for specific themes and applications. Moreover, because of the participatory nature of CoSMoS, and ASM in general, these system elements and even the categories may be improved during the workshops themselves.

Case studies portfolio

Zambezi workshop - stakeholders negotiating

Water-Energy-Land Nexus in the Zambezi River Basin

CoSMoS for the Zambezi Basin was also carried out as part of the ISWEL project led by IIASA. This workshop aimed to co-develop different visions and pathways while taking into account different global development and climate trends and enhancing the shared understanding of the implications of different investments in the Zambezi basin – especially concerning […]

Water-Energy-Land Nexus in the Indus River Basin

The CoSMoS method applied in a workshop setting was used for the Indus River Basin and was part of the Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (ISWEL) project led by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in partnership with the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). […]

Fisheries Management in the Nakambe Basin, Burkina Faso

Implementing SDGs at the local level, Fimela Region, Senegal

Resilience Building in Andalusia Region, Spain

The ASM process was also used in the context of the EIT Climate-KIC Deep Demonstration “Forging Resilience Regions” project – an initiative aimed at supporting European regions in their transformation to net-zero emissions and climate-resilient future. A workshop based on a combination of CoSMoS and elements of policy simulations (another one of our tools) was […]

TECHNICAL INFO

Anticipatory Systems Mapping can be conducted face-to-face (using physical cards and sometimes printed maps) or online (using a collaborative whiteboard application).

Participants in an ASM session are the stakeholders or actors who have a shared interest and/or operate within the same system. These may be policymakers or the general public. It is important to engage a wide range of stakeholders in this process, including non-experts and marginalised stakeholders.

ASM requires intensive facilitation. CRS can either run ASM workshops in English or train local facilitators to lead ASM workshops in the participants’ language.

The materials for the workshop, such as cards and maps, can be prepared by CRS or be made ready for printing by the workshop organisers.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main differences between Anticipatory Systems Mapping (ASM) and Collaborative Systems Mapping of Sustainable Pathway (CoSMoS)?
Is a single workshop enough for an ASM process?
How long should ASM workshops be?
How many people should I invite to the workshop(s)?

There is no ideal target number. To capture the diversity of perspectives, a larger number of participants is preferable to a smaller number. Larger groups can be divided into smaller groups, either across time (e.g. different workshops) or space (e.g. different breakout groups). Bear in mind that a larger number of participants will mean more complex facilitation and a greater number of facilitators needed.
How do I know how many facilitators I need for my workshop(s)?
Do I always need to plan time for a debriefing or can I skip it?

You need to take debriefing seriously. Debriefing is where most of the learning happens for participants and facilitators/organisers alike. It can also be an opportunity to give more marginalised stakeholders a chance to express themselves to the group, for example. For the debriefing, you should think about and prepare questions in advance, in line with your learning objectives.
How long does it take to co-design the ASM elements with stakeholders?
Can participants create their own elements during workshops?
What can I do if the stakeholders I’m designing the ASM process with have strong disagreements?